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MarketWatch

Refined Products
9.27.2016

Recap: Oil prices rallied, adding to last week's gains, as traders await word out of Algeria, where the world's largest oil producers are meeting to discuss ways on how to support the market. The up move came despite money managers cutting bullish positions to a one-month low, according to the latest Commitment of Traders Report.

November WTI picked up momentum as it traded through its 200-day moving average of $44.63, and its 50-day moving average of $45.57. This rally of almost $2, or 3.8% continued, with spot futures peaking the session at $46.20. Gains were pared, with November WTI closing at $45.93, up $1.45, or 3.26%. Brent for November delivery tacked on $1.46, or 3.18%, to settle at $47.35. Moving oscillators remain in neutral territory, pointing to the upside.

October RBOB gained 2.6 cents, or 1.9%, to $1.402 a gallon, while October heating oil  added 4.2 cents, or 3%, to $1.449 a gallon.

Fundamental News: Genscape reported that crude oil stocks held in Cushing, Oklahoma in the week ending September 23rd fell by 276,114 barrels to 65,164,226 barrels on the week and by 189,015 barrels from Tuesday, September 20th. 

Iran downplayed the chances of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers agreeing to cut output in Algeria this week even though several other members of the group said they still hoped for steps to cut production.  Iran's Oil Minister, Bijan Zanganeh, said an informal meeting of OPEC members is only advisory and expectations should be modest.  He said that talks among OPEC members in Algeria can be used for the OPEC summit in Vienna in November. An OPEC delegate said the focus was now firmly on trying to persuade Iran to freeze production at levels acceptable for the rest of OPEC. 

Meanwhile, Algeria's Energy Minister, Noureddine Bouterfa, said everyone in OPEC agreed that the market was oversupplied and the situation had worsened since the last OPEC meeting in June.  He said all options were possible for an oil output cut or freeze at the informal meeting.  He stated that Saudi Arabia has offered to cut its output to January levels.  His comments suggest OPEC's leading member may still be willing to work toward the group's first production cuts since the group let members produce at will in late 2014. 

Iran is said to have put a proposal on the table at recent meetings that it should have 12.7% of OPEC output or 4.173 million bpd, according to a Seda reporter.  Other countries would bring down their production to the lowest level they've had in the past 12 months. 

Russia's Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, will travel to Algeria this week for talks with OPEC. Developments in Russia indicate that the country is not preparing for any coordinated production action.  Five leading Russian oil companies say they will increase output next year after reaching record levels in recent months.  President Vladimir Putin has had no meeting with leading Russian oil producers and the Energy Ministry has yet to hold consultations to sort out details and logistics of any output action.   

UAE Energy Minister, Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, said that the oil market was balancing but added that production by some OPEC members was slowing its recovery.  He added that the UAE would support a global oil freeze initiative to help support markets.  The UAE's Energy Minister said the maximum that can be expected from Algiers is an oil freeze.  Production cuts are not up for discussion. 

Iraq's Oil Minister, Jabber Al-Luaibi, said he is confident OPEC will reach a good decision. 

US Energy Secretary, Ernest Moniz, said Iran is exporting oil at about the same level it was before the introduction of international sanctions that have been lifted under the nuclear deal between Iran and major powers. 


Early Market Call - as of 9:00 AM EDT

WTI - Nov $44.69, down 1.24 cents

RBOB - Oct $1.3730, down 2.94 cents

HO - Oct $1.4126, down 3.64 cents 


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Natural Gas
9.27.2016

Monday, September 26th, saw the front-month NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Contracts open at $2.972, nearly two cents above Friday’s closing price of $2.955.  Rebounding off the intraday low of $2.964 by 9:20AM, the contract mounted a confident ascent to recapture the $3.00 mark as settlement approaches.  Peaking at the intraday high of $3.018 shortly after 10:00AM, prices seesawed along the $3.00 level for the balance of the day, as October closed higher on Monday at $2.997.

This morning in Globex, WTI Crude was down $1.31; Natural Gas was up one cent; Heating Oil was down four cents; and; Gasoline was down four cents.  Additionally, cash prices were higher in New York and lower in New England.

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