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MarketWatch

Refined Products
7.1.2015

Recap:

After posting gains for two consecutive months, WTI finished the month of June down 1.8 percent from May. The August contract settled at $59.47, up $1.14. Brent for August delivery, settled at $63.59, up $1.58. Expiring products lead the complex higher, with the July Rbob closing at $2.0896, up 5.93 cents and July heating oil gained 5 cents for a settlement of $1.8866.  

Although this move is being attributed to Greece's economic crisis and expected inventory draws, one has to wonder how much of today's rally was due to the end of the month as well as the end of the quarter. Six out of the last nine years, WTI has finished the second quarter on a higher note, as traders look to square their books.

Fundamental News:

OPEC's oil production in June increased to a three year high due to record or near record output from Iraq and Saudi Arabia. OPEC's oil production increased to 31.6 million bpd from a revised 31.3 million bpd in May. Saudi Arabia kept its output above 10.3 million bpd in June.

According to the EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly, US total oil demand in April increased 1.4% or 254,000 bpd on the year to 19.037 million bpd. It is up 3.8% on the month. It reported that US distillate demand in April increased by 0.7% or 26,000 bpd on the year to 3.998 million bpd. US distillate exports increased to 1.235 million bpd in April, up from 1.021 million bpd in March. The US total refined oil product exports increased to 2.873 million bpd in April compared with 2.482 million bpd in March. The EIA reported thatUS crude oil production increased by 9,000 bpd to 9.701 million bpd, the highest level since May 1971, while its oil exports increased to 586,000 bpd in April compared with 417,000 bpd in March.

Iran and the six world powers continued their negotiations on Tuesday after accepting that they would miss a June 30th deadline for a nuclear deal. They have decided to extend the interim nuclear agreement until July 7th. Diplomats said the Vienna talks would run on for as long as necessary to reach a deal intended to promise an end to sanctions in exchange for at least a decade of limits on Iran's most sensitive nuclear activities. Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said he believed it was possible to reach a final nuclear agreement with the six world powers. Iran's President Hassan Rouhani warned that Iran would resume its halted nuclear work if major powers breach their commitments.

Early Market Call - as of 9:00 AM EDT

WTI - Aug $58.77, down 70 cents

RBOB - Aug $2.0284, down 2.10 cents

ULSD - Aug $1.8753, down 1.46 cents

Markets this morning fell as Greece defaulted on its debt to the IMF. Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said Greece could accept a bailout offer if some conditions are changed.

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Natural Gas
7.1.2015

Tuesday, June 30th, saw the front-month NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Contracts open at $2.782, roughly two cents below Monday’s closing price of $2.805.  Trading lower to begin the day, prices quickly fell to the intraday low of $2.752 by 9:10AM, but began an undulant recovery soon thereafter. Swelling to $2.788 at 10:40AM, August faded, moving below the $2.76 mark by noon.  With news of warmer-than-expected temperatures on the way, buying took control during the afternoon, as prices surged to attain the intraday high of $2.837 minutes before closing.  August closed higher on Tuesday at $2.832.

This morning in Globex, WTI Crude was down 73 cents; Natural Gas was up two cents; and both Heating Oil and Gasoline were down two cents.

New York and New England cash prices were lower across the board.

 

Natural Gas Glossary

                                                                                                       
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