Recap: The oil market posted an outside trading day as the market weighed the instability in the Middle East against the U.S.-Russia peace talks seeking to end the war in Ukraine. The market rallied in overnight trading and breached its previous highs as it posted a high of $68.72. The market was well supported after President Donald Trump on Monday vowed to continue the U.S. assault on Yemen’s Houthis unless they end their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. President Trump said he would hold Iran responsible for any attacks carried out by the Houthi group. The market was further supported by the Israeli air strikes in Gaza that ended a weeks long standoff over extending a ceasefire that halted fighting in January. However, the market later gave up its sharp gains and breached its previous low as it sold off to a low of $66.73 in afternoon trading. The market traded lower as President Trump spoke with his Russian counterpart about a possible Ukraine ceasefire. The crude market later bounced off its low and retraced some of its losses ahead of the close amid reports that while the U.S and Russia agreed that the war between Russia and Ukraine needs to end with a “lasting peace” and further negotiations would begin immediately, Russia stopped short from agreeing to the broader 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine said it was ready to implement. The April WTI contract settled down 68 cents at $66.90 and the May Brent contract settled down 51 cents at $70.56. The product markets ended lower, with the heating oil market settling down 93 points at $2.1945 and the RB market settling down 1.28 cents at $2.1684.
Technical Analysis: The crude market will trade sideways ahead of the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports on Wednesday morning and ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, in which Fed officials are expected to maintain interest rates. The market will also remain headline driven amid the instability in the Middle East and as further negotiations begin to end the Russia-Ukraine war following Tuesday’s talks between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The market is seen finding support at $66.73, $66.59, $66.37, $66.15 and $65.22. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at $67.50, $67.73, $67.96, $68.72 and $70.60.
Fundamental News: The White House said U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in a call on Tuesday that the war between Russia and Ukraine needs to end with a “lasting peace” and talks to achieve that goal will begin immediately in the Middle East. The two leaders agreed to seek a limited 30-day ceasefire against energy and infrastructure targets in Ukraine. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin stopped short of accepting a broader U.S. backed 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine has said it is ready to accept. He emphasized that the “complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Ukraine is a condition for any permanent peace deal.
Palestinian health authorities said Israeli airstrikes pounded Gaza and killed more than 400 people on Tuesday, ending weeks of relative calm after talks to secure a permanent ceasefire stalled. Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas each accused the other of breaching the truce, which had broadly held since January. Hamas, which still holds 59 of the 250 or so hostages Israel says the group seized in its October 7, 2023 attack, accused Israel of jeopardizing efforts by mediators to negotiate a permanent deal to end the fighting, but the group made no threat of retaliation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered strikes because Hamas had rejected proposals to secure a ceasefire extension during faltering talks. Egypt and Qatar, mediators in the ceasefire deal along with the U.S., condemned the Israeli assault. Meanwhile, U.N. Under-Secretary-General, Tom Fletcher, said the return to hostilities in Gaza must cease and humanitarian aid and commercial essentials be allowed to enter the embattled territory.
Early Market Call – as of 8:45 AM EDT
WTI – Apr $66.88, down 2 cents
RBOB – Apr $2.1723, up 39 points
HO – Apr $2.2109, up 1.64 cents
