Recap: The oil market on Friday posted an inside trading day and remained in negative territory as the market positioned itself ahead of the impending 25% tariffs that the Trump administration will impose on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China starting on Tuesday, March 4th. The market was also pressured by Iraq’s decision to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region. Baghdad was expected to announce the resumption of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. The crude market opened at $70.17 and retraced some of Thursday’s gains as it sold off to a low of $69.14 by mid-morning. The market later bounced off its low and traded back above the $70.00 and rallied to a high of $70.29 ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled down 59 cents at $69.76 and the April Brent contract settled down 86 cents at $73.18. The product markets also posted inside trading days, with the heating oil market settling down 41 points at $2.3549 and the RB market settling down 2.63 cents at $1.9703.
Technical Analysis: The oil market will continue to trend sideways, barring any major change in the Trump administration’s tariff policy ahead of the March 4th deadline. The market will also look for further developments on the possible Ukraine-Russia ceasefire following a contentious meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday. The market is seen finding support at its low of $69.14, $68.61, $68.36, $68.00, $67.92, $67.75, $67.67, $67.18 followed by $66.62 and $66.41. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at its high of $70.29, $70.54, $70.75, $71.26, $71.31 and $72.77.
Fundamental News: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump ended on Friday after the two leaders traded verbal blows before the world’s media at the White House over the war with Russia. The visit by Ukraine’s President was designed to help Ukraine convince the United States not to side with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who ordered the invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Ukraine’s President said Russia’s President could not be trusted in any negotiations, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance stressed the need for diplomacy to resolve the conflict. U.S. President Trump quickly took to Truth Social to accuse Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy of disrespecting the United States. Ukraine’s President left the White House early following the confrontation, without signing a deal between Ukraine and the United States over the joint development of natural resources. The clash also undermines recent efforts by European leaders to convince President Trump to provide security guarantees for Ukraine even if he has refused to deploy U.S. soldiers on Ukrainian soil. Such guarantees are seen as crucial to deter Russia from future aggression.
Canada and Mexico on Friday sought to show U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration evidence of progress in curbing the flow of fentanyl opioids into the U.S. ahead of a March 4th deadline for 25% tariffs on their goods imports. Canadian and Mexican officials were meeting separately with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and other senior Trump administration officials to try to forestall the tariffs.
Baker Hughes said U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a fifth consecutive week for the first time since May 2022. The oil and gas rig count increased by one to 593 in the week to February 28th, its highest since June. Baker Hughes said oil rigs fell by two to 486 this week, while gas rigs rose by three to 102.
IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.1 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 28th, increasing available refining capacity by 252,000 bpd.
Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT
WTI – Apr $70.29, up 53 cents
RBOB – Apr $2.2371, up 1.48 cents
HO – Apr $2.3127, down 29 points
