Recap: The oil market continued to trend lower for the third consecutive session as market sentiment was weighed by concerns over a slowing Chinese economy cutting oil demand. The market was still focused on the economic data showing that China’s economy grew 4.7% in April-June, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2023 and missing a 5.1% forecast. The crude market opened at its high of $81.93, breached its previous low of $81.47 and continued to sell off to a low of $80.22 early in the morning. The market later retraced some of its losses and settled in a sideways trading range. The August WTI contract settled down $1.15 at $80.76 while the Brent market settled down $1.12 at $83.73. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 4.48 cents at $2.4688 and the RB market settling down 1.41 cents at $2.4775.
Technical Analysis: The oil market may continue to trend lower as the market pressured by concerns over demand. The market may also remain on its downward trend as the weekly petroleum stock reports are expected to show a small build in crude stocks of over 500,000 barrels on the week. The crude market is seen finding support at its low of $80.22, $80.18, $79.91, $79.17 and $78.48. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at its high of $81.93, $82.58, $83.74 and $84.52.
Fundamental News: Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, said the country remains open to resuming negotiations with Washington toward restoring mutual participation in a nuclear deal.
Oman’s maritime security center said the Prestige Falcon, a Comoros-flagged oil tanker, had capsized off the coast of Duqm. Shipping data by LSEG showed the tanker’s destination as Yemen’s Aden.
LyondellBasell Industries reported flaring at its 263,776 bpd Houston, Texas refinery.
Federal Reserve Governor, Adriana Kugler, said recent data suggests inflation will continue to decline to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target, citing the faster decline in price pressures in recent months, moderation in wages, and an emerging balance between businesses’ demand for workers and the number of people looking for jobs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said U.S. import prices were unchanged in June as lower prices for energy products offset a rebound in the cost of food. The flat reading in import prices followed a 0.2% decline in May. In the 12 months through June, import prices increased 1.6%. That followed a 1.4% advance in May. Imported fuel prices fell 1.0% after increasing 0.4% in May. Crude petroleum and natural gas prices both declined. Excluding fuels and food, import prices were unchanged. These so-called core import prices fell 0.1% in May. The report also showed that export prices fell 0.5% in June after declining 0.7% in May. In the 12 months through June, export prices increased 0.7% after gaining 0.5% in June.
U.S. retail sales were unchanged in June as a decline in receipts at auto dealerships was offset by strength elsewhere. The report from the Commerce Department, which showed sales for May were higher than initially estimated, did not change expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in September amid cooling inflation. It also helped to assuage fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy. The unchanged reading in retail sales last month followed an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May. Retail sales increased 2.3% on a year-on-year basis in June.
Early Market Call – as of 8:15 AM EDT
WTI – August $81.43, up 67 cents
RBOB – August $2.4808, up 33 points
HO – August $2.4704, up 16 points
