Recap: WTI traded higher for the fourth straight session on Friday, to finish up 14.1% on the quarter and 22.8% for the first half of the year. August WTI opened the session trading below unchanged hitting a session low of $72.90, but rebounded after the Baker Hughes report showed the number of oil rigs declined by 4. This spot contract recaptured the $74.00 level, trading at a high of $74.46. Gains were pared with August WTI settling at $74.15 a barrel, up 70 cents, or 0.95%. August Brent, which expired at the end of the session, finished at $79.44 a barrel, up $1.59, or 2.04, a gain of 5.9% on the week and 17% on the quarter.
July RBOB settled at $2.179 a gallon, up 2.2%, or 21% higher year to date, while July heating oil rose 1.4%, to $2.1209 a gallon, or 6.5% year to date.
Fundamental News: Baker Hughes reported that the number of rigs searching for oil fell by 4 to 858 in the week ending June 29th.
According to a Reuters survey, Saudi Arabia has increased its supply to 10.7 million bpd in June, close to a record high, a sign the country wants to make up shortfalls elsewhere in the group and moderate prices. It is up 700,000 bpd from May and means oil supply from OPEC will be higher in June despite a decline in Iranian exports and outages in Libya.
Russia’s Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said the country could increase oil output by more than 200,000 bpd if needed to help OPEC and non-OPEC producers to increase production by 1 million bpd.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed energy security at a meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Khalid al Falih in Washington.
According to Oil Movements, OPEC oil shipments will increase by 700,000 bpd to 25.66 million bpd in the four week period ending July 14th, compared with the previous four week period ending June 16th. Mideast shipments, including those from non-OPEC nations Oman and Yemen, will increase by 400,000 bpd to 18.81 million bpd.
European refiners are cutting purchases of Iranian oil faster than expected as the US prepares to reimpose sanctions on Iran. The US said that companies would have to wind down their activities with Iran by November 4th or risk exclusion from the US financial system.
IIR Energy reported that US oil refiners are expected to shut in 162,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending June 29th, cutting available refining capacity by 52,000 bpd from the previous week. IIR expects offline capacity to increase to 184,000 bpd in the week ending July 6th and 277,000 bpd in the subsequent week.
Bloomberg reported that global refinery outages reached 3.203 million bpd in the week ending June 28th.
Libya’s National Oil Corp expects to declare force majeure on loadings from the eastern ports of Zueitina and Hariga starting July 1st, raising losses in output from a power struggle over oil exports to 800,000 bpd.
The EIA reported that US crude oil production fell marginally by 2,000 bpd to 10.467 million bpd in April from the highest record in March. Production in Texas increased by 30,000 bpd to 4.22 million bpd in April. US distillate demand increased 9.6% or 363,000 bpd to 4.154 million bpd while gasoline demand fell by 0.7% or 61,000 bpd to 9.187 million bpd.
Early Market Call – as of 8:50 AM EDT
WTI – Aug $73.63, down 52 cents
RBOB – Aug $2.1280, down 2.31 cents
HO – Aug $2.1895, down 2.05 cents
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