Recap: Oil prices that have been stuck in neutral for most of the week jumped higher on Thursday, alongside a jump in US equities. WTI crude was recently trading 3.3% higher at $113.93 a barrel. After a lackluster start to the week, futures are finding some bullish momentum in the latter half. Part of the increase is due to data yesterday showing draws in crude and product storage levels. According to yesterday's EIA petroleum report, commercial crude stocks dropped by 1 million barrels. However, the total crude draw was much larger with the addition of a 6M-barrel release from US strategic reserves. Additionally, gasoline stockpiles are also extremely low at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, which could put additional upward pressure on crude oil prices. WTI for July delivery gained $3.76 per barrel, or 3.41% to $114.09, while July Brent gained $3.37 per barrel, or 2.96% to $117.40. RBOB Gasoline for June delivery gained 4.57 cents per gallon, or 1.19% to $3.8774 and ULSD for June delivery gained 10.16 cents per gallon, or 2.63% to $3.9680
Technical Analysis: Thursday’s higher move reaffirmed the uptrend, as July WTI pushed above $113. As of now, we are looking for a run at $116.64, the top of the sideways pattern that can be depicted on a daily spot continuation chart. A break below the 10-day moving average could see this market back down to $105. We would still look to be buyers down to the $105 level.
Fundamental News: Refinitiv expects 3.83 million tons of diesel and gasoil to arrive in Europe from other regions in May, significantly lower than April's levels.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said Iran has made "minimal but good progress" in relations with Saudi Arabia, adding that he may meet his Saudi counterpart soon in a third country. He also told the World Economic Forum that Iran still saw the removal of Western economic sanctions against the country as a key stumbling block in nuclear talks. He said Tehran believed U.S. President Joe Biden's administration was continuing his predecessor Donald Trump's maximum pressure policy and needed to take quick decisions on removing sanctions in order to see progress at the talks.
Six OPEC+ sources stated that OPEC+ is set to stick to an oil production deal agreed last year at its meeting on June 2nd and raise July output targets by 432,000 bpd, despite Western calls for a faster increase to lower surging prices. Members from the group maintain that the oil market is balanced and that the recent price hikes are not related to fundamentals. In April, OPEC+ produced 2.6 million bpd below its targets, with Russia accounting for half of the shortfall.
Germany's Economy Minister, Robert Habeck, said the European Union can still strike a deal on a Russian oil embargo in the coming days or look to "other instruments" if no agreement is reached. He said all EU countries had to reduce their oil dependency. Brussels has already proposed giving Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic more time to impose an embargo, compared with other EU states. The EU also offered up to 2 billion euros or $2.1 billion for oil infrastructure to help those countries pivot to non-Russian supplies. However, Hungary said about 750 million euros would be needed in short-term investments to withstand an embargo, while a total modernization of its energy system would cost billions.
The U.S. Commerce Department confirmed the economy contracted in the first quarter under the weight of a record trade deficit and a slightly slower pace of inventory accumulation compared to the fourth quarter. It reported that GDP fell at a 1.5 annualized rate last quarter. That was revised down from the 1.4% pace of decline reported in April. The economy grew at a 6.9% pace in the fourth quarter.
Early Market Call – as of 8:50 AM EDT
WTI – July $113.38, down 71 cents
RBOB – June $3.8645, down 89 points
HO – June $3.9114, down 5.43 cents
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