Recap: The news regarding U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin agreeing to hold further talks on a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to pressure the oil market on Thursday. The oil market extended Wednesday’s losses and breached its previous lows as it posted a low of $70.22 in overnight trading. In addition to the possibility of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the market was also pressured by the expectations that President Trump will outline plans for reciprocal trade tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. goods. The builds in crude oil stocks reported by the API and EIA also continued to weigh on the market. The market, however, bounced off its low and retraced its losses and posted a high of $71.48 ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled in a sideways trading range and ended the session down 8 cents at $71.29 and the April Brent contract settled down 16 cents at $75.02. The product markets settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 33 points at $2.4487 and the RB market settling up 2.11 cents at $2.1107.
Technical Analysis: The oil market on Friday will likely trade sideways ahead of the long Presidents’ Day holiday weekend as it awaits further developments on the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and as the market continues to digest the latest policy announcements by the Trump administration. The market is seen finding support at its low of $70.22, $70.00, $69.75, $69.06 and $68.94. Resistance is seen at $71.48, $73.22, $73.68, $73.73, $74.81, $75.18-$75.21 and $75.89.
Fundamental News: U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a roadmap on Thursday for charging reciprocal tariffs on every country that puts duties on U.S. imports. He said “We want a level playing field.” A White House official said the tariffs were not going into effect on Thursday but could begin to be imposed within weeks as Trump’s trade and economic team study bilateral tariff and trade relationships. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, said the administration’s studies on the issue would be completed by April 1st.
The IEA, in its latest monthly oil market report, made a minor upward revision to its oil demand forecasts, pegging 2025 global demand growth at 1.1 million bpd, up from a previous view of 1.05 million bpd. It continues to see supply growing faster. It said global supply is on track to increase by 1.6 million bpd in 2025, led by the Americas, even in the absence of OPEC+ unwinding output cuts.
The Kremlin said that there is political will on both the Russian and U.S. sides to find a settlement and end the Ukraine war, following talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. Later, the Kremlin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump might speak again by phone before meeting in person. Russia said that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in talks to end the war, but there would be a separate U.S.-Russian strand to the negotiations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said it could take up to several months to arrange a meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, possibly in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
Ukraine and its European allies demanded that they be included in any peace negotiations, after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and said Ukraine could neither have all of its land back nor join NATO.
The leader of Yemen’s Houthis, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, said they will immediately take military action if the U.S. and Israel attack Gaza.
Early Market Call – as of 8:30 AM EDT
WTI – Mar $71.88, up 59 cents
RBOB – Mar $2.1245, up 1.38 cents
HO – Mar $2.4760, up 2.73 cents
