Recap: Oil edged lower on Thursday but remained close to three-month highs after a surprise build in U.S. crude stocks and as buyers continue to drive it higher. Oil prices were also pressured as Shanghai imposed new COVID-19 lockdown measures although China’s stronger-than-expected exports in May offered a boost to the demand outlook. Oil prices have been rallying steadily over the last two months, led by big increases in prices of refined products due to tight refining supply and surging demand. Front Month NYMEX Crude for July delivery lost 60 cents per barrel, or 0.49% to $121.51. August Brent lost 51 cents per barrel, or 0.41% to $123.07
As gasoline prices approach a record of $5 a gallon, fuel costs are rippling through almost every corner of business, with signs emerging that the rising expenses are beginning to alter consumer behavior. Prices of gasoline, as well as diesel and jet fuel, continue to face upward pressure for many reasons that are unlikely to go away soon. Oil and fuel production hasn’t increased quickly enough to meet growing global demand, as economies emerge from pandemic-related restrictions. U.S. fuel-making capacity has actually declined due to refinery closures, while U.S. exports have remained strong as the thirst for fuel in other parts of the world leads traders to capitalize on the arbitrage opportunities of sending it abroad. Higher gasoline prices tend to reduce consumption as people adjust their driving patterns, economists say. In the short term, a 10% rise in gasoline prices results in a 2% to 3% decline in gasoline consumption, said Lucas Davis, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley. July RBOB gained 5.43 cents per gallon, or 1.29% to $4.2762. Front Month NYMEX ULSD for July delivery gained 8.94 cents per gallon, or 2.07% to $4.4037
Technical Analysis: Oil prices consolidated after hitting 3-month highs, as this market continues to find support underneath. Some market analysts believe that oil prices need to rally further to normalize the unsustainably low levels of global inventories. The supply of crude oil cannot keep up with demand now that we are opening borders around the world, including China. That being said, we are still looking to buy dips, looking for this market to pull out of the ascending channel it has been trending in since November. Support is seen at $117.97 and below that at $122.49.Resistance above the channel remains at $126.85 and $130.50.
Fundamental News: The U.S. energy security envoy said Thursday that Russia may be getting more revenue from fossil fuel sales currently than before the war , due to the global price increases.
U.S. Secreatary of State Blinken said Thursday Iran must cooperate with the IAEA and provide technically credible information in response to the group’s questions. He noted that negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal can only conclude if Tehran drops its extraneous demands.
The U.N.’s IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, told its board that Iran has informed the agency by letter that it plans to disconnect 20 IAEA surveillance cameras and other monitoring equipment. He said Iran is removing essentially all the extra International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring equipment installed under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and there are only three to four weeks before it becomes impossible to revive the deal. Iran's move is apparent further retaliation for the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors' resolution criticizing Iran for failing to explain uranium particles at undeclared sites, which was passed on Wednesday evening.
Insights Global estimated ARA gasoil dtocks for the week ending June 9th stood at 1.46 million tonnes down 2.5% from the prior week’s levels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1% while fuel oil stocks jumped by 13%.
Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT
WTI – July $122.13, up 63 cents
RBOB – July $4.27, down 62 points
HO – July $4.4928, up 8.86 cents
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