Recap: The crude market on Tuesday extended the gains posted on Monday as the market remained well supported by the latest economic stimulus measures announced in China to support its economy. The market continued to trade higher after China on Monday cut its benchmark lending rates as part of the government’s latest stimulus measures. The oil market, which posted an inside trading day on Monday, posted a low of $70.05 in overnight trading before it rallied higher and retraced more than 38% of its move from a high of $78.46 to a low of $68.69. The market breached its previous highs and traded to a high of $72.66 in afternoon trading. The market was also supported ahead of the November WTI contract’s expiration at the close. The November WTI contract later traded in a sideways trading range ahead of the close and expired up $1.53 at $72.09. The December WTI contract settled up $1.70 at $71.74 and the December Brent contract settled up $1.75 at $76.04. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.37 cents at $2.2370 and the RB market settling up 5.68 cents at $2.0715.
Technical Analysis: The crude market on Wednesday will be driven by the latest weekly petroleum stocks reports, which are expected to show builds in crude stocks and draws in product stocks. The market will also remain supported as concerns over the conflict in the Middle East persist. It continues to await the expected Israeli retaliation against Iran. The oil market is seen finding resistance at its high of $72.09, basis the December contract, $72.94, $74.06, $74.35, $75.28, $75.45. Meanwhile, support is seen at $69.35, $68.46, $68.17, $67.94 and $65.99.
Fundamental News: On Tuesday, Hezbollah said it had fired rockets at two bases near the Israeli city of Tel Aviv and one west of Haifa on Tuesday morning just hours before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinkin arrived in Israel to make another push for a ceasefire. Diplomatic efforts have so far failed to bring an end to the year-long war in the Palestinian territory of Gaza and its spillover conflict between the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and Israel, which has intensified in recent weeks. He will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other officials during the day as part of a week-long Middle East visit that also includes Jordan and Qatar. A senior State Department official said that in Israel, Blinken will discuss Israel’s anticipated retaliation for a ballistic missile attack launched by Iran on October 1st. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, said Tehran does not seek war in the Middle East and has made efforts to reduce tensions but is prepared for any conflict.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ cultural and social commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari, said Israel is unlikely to make a “significant move” against Iran but could instead mount a symbolic limited attack. He added that Iran’s response would depend on the intensity of Israel’s retaliation, and that if Israel ended up carrying out a significant attack, Iran would respond with a higher-intensity offensive against Israel.
Shale producers’ West Texas Midland crude is getting lighter, which could make it less appealing to some refiners. Super-light crudes would have to be blended with heavier grades for processing into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Less supply of heavy crude and high prices for it could cut demand for WTI Midland, which could result in lower prices for the globally used dated Brent benchmark of which WTI has become an integral part. It has become a central part of Brent, a group of North Sea grades used to price over 75% of the world’s crude. However, shale producers in the Permian basin of west Texas and New Mexico have been producing lighter crude. Shale producers are pumping lighter oil as they exhaust first-tier production areas and move into second-tier acreage. These wells yield more natural gas, with crude pushing into super-light territory. Sources said refiners, pipeline operators and others have begun discussing the need for a lighter gravity benchmark, which would help buyers differentiate WTI Midland from super-light streams of oil.
Early Market Call – as of 8:50 AM EDT
WTI – Dec $70.59, down $1.15
RBOB – Nov $2.0401, down 3.14 cents
HO – Nov $2.2148, down 2.22 cents
