Recap: US benchmark oil prices climb 3.7% to a session-high of $123.18 a barrel, putting them less than $7 shy of a 14-year-high of $130.50 reached on March 7, the day before the Biden administration announced a US ban on Russian oil imports. The latest surge in prices comes after a weekly EIA report showed a massive, 7.3M-barrel drop in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held by the US government. The continued fall in the SPR means commercial reserves that are 15% below average would be in an even more precarious situation if the government wasn't draining its strategic reserves, which will have to be replenished eventually. Gains were pared, but both Brent and WTI settled at their highest level in 13 weeks. Front Month NYMEX Crude for July delivery gained $2.70 per barrel, or 2.26% to $122.1. August Brent gained $3.01 per barrel, or 2.50% to $123.58. July RBOB Gasoline gained 6.42 cents per gallon, or 1.54% to $4.2219. July lost 0.63 cent per gallon, or 0.15% to $4.3143.
Technical Analysis: For the first time since November, WTI settled above the long standing ascending channel that can be depicted on a daily spot continuation chart. We would like to see a settlement above this channel for Friday’s trading session before buying above the channel. We are still looking for higher prices and therefore still like buying on dips. Support is seen at $117.28 and below that at $115. Resistance above the channel remains at $126.85 and $130.50.
Fundamental News: The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil in the SPR fell by a record 7.3 million barrels in the week ending June 3rd to 519.3 million barrels, its lowest level since March 1987. The EIA also reported that refinery inputs of crude increased by 354,000 bpd to 16.387 million bpd, the highest level since January 2020, while refinery percent utilization increased in the latest week to 94.2%, the highest level since December 2019. U.S. East Coast refinery utilization increased to 99.2%, the highest level since November 2017.
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned Europe could face energy shortages next winter as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has deepened the region's energy crisis. He said that while governments and companies were now looking to secure alternative energy supplies, it is equally important for governments to take measures to reduce demand. He said if European consumers reduce the temperature in their homes by 2 degrees Celsius, 20 bcm of natural gas will be saved, equivalent to the volumes coming from Russia to Europe through Nord Stream 1.
At least three cargoes of gasoline were provisionally booked on Tuesday to load out of Northwest Europe to North America.
IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to have shut in 433,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending June 10th, increasing available refining capacity by 207,000 bpd. Offline capacity is seen at 433,000 bpd for the week ending June 17th.
Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 34 shipments on Line 20, which carries distillates from Atlanta, Georgia to Nashville, Tennessee.
Early Market Call – as of 8:35 AM EDT
WTI – July $122.02, down 9 cents
RBOB – July $4.2550, up 3.39 cents
HO – July $4.3575, up 4.32 cents
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