Oil Futures Rebounded on Thursday, but Remained Near Eight-Month Lows

Recap: Oil futures rebounded on Thursday, but remained near eight-month lows, as China’s extension of COVID restrictions exacerbated concerns a slowdown in global economic activity would hit fuel demand. Prices also garnered support from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to halt oil and gas exports if price caps are imposed by European buyers. Concerns about the health of the global economy and expectations of falling fuel demand led to sharp oil price falls in the previous session, which extended into early Thursday trading.  WTI for October delivery gained $1.60 per barrel, or 1.95% to $83.54. November Brent added $1.15 per barrel, or 1.31% to $89.15. Petroleum products finished mixed with October RBOB gaining 3.84 cents per gallon, or 1.66% to $2.3461, while ULSD for October delivery lost 4.59 cents per gallon, or 1.28% to $3.5401.

Technical Analysis:  WTI oil prices climb as much as 2.7% to a session high of $84.25 a barrel as bullish investors try to stage a rebound after prices fell nearly 6% yesterday and closed at the lowest level since Jan. 11. At this point, we believe that the market also rebounded as it was perhaps a bit overdone to the downside, but there is still more downside potential left. Demand and global economic concerns will work to keep a lid on prices, limiting upside movement. Underneath, the $80 level offers support, while $85 is a level of resistance. Expect a lot of noisy behavior, as we are also starting to form the so-called “death cross”, we spoke about on Wednesday.

Fundamental News:  The EIA reported that U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil imports increased last week to the highest level since September 2021. It reported that Gulf Coast crude imports increased to 1.7 million bpd. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks in the SPR fell to 442.5 million barrels, the lowest level since November 1984.

U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo said Thursday that a number of oil-importing countries are considering whether to join the G7’s plan to cap the price of Russian oil. The G7 is expected to release its proposed related rules surrounding the program in the next few days. The rules would look to direct importers on how to use financial products to ship Russian oil, as long as the price is under the agreed cap.

National Security spokesman, John Kirby, said U.S. President Joe Biden wants to ensure that the U.S. has “other available options” to ensure that Iran does not achieve nuclear weapons capability, if efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal fail.  He said the U.S. would remain active in pushing for reimplementation of the agreement but added that its patience was “not eternal.” 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve is "strongly committed" to fighting inflation, but there remains hope it can be done without the "very high social costs" involved in prior campaigns to control increasing prices. He reiterated what has now become the Fed's message of the moment: Policymakers won't back down on planned rate increases. The Fed will hold its next policy meeting on September 20th-21st, when it will issue updated economic projections and almost certainly announce the fifth consecutive increase in the target federal funds rate.

Early Market Call – as of 8:15 AM EDT

WTI – October $85.35 Up $1.81

RBOB – October $2.3877 Up $0.0412

HO – October $3.5572 Up 0.0148

View the Sprague Refined Products Market Watch Report in a downloadable pdf format by clicking below.

Click to view more online:
Heating Oil Supplier

Diesel Supplier
View market updates
View our refined products glossary
Go to SpraguePORT online

This market update is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as advice on any transaction nor is it a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Sprague makes no representations or warranties with respect to the contents of such news, including, without limitation, its accuracy and completeness, and Sprague shall not be responsible for the consequence of reliance upon any opinions, statements, projections and analyses presented herein or for any omission or error in fact. The views expressed in this material are through the period as of the date of this report and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance or results and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied, or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without Sprague’s express written consent.